The Lars Resort: Odds tips from Lars Sivertsen

The Lars Resort: Odds tips from Lars Sivertsen


Another international break is heading our way to put the PL on pause, but before that we have one more weekend of action from the best league in the world. Here’s another boosted weekly treble and three selected singles…

By Lars Sivertsen, Football Expert for Betsson



Boosted Treble of the week


Crystal Palace – Liverpool

First up we head to Selhurst Park, where Crystal Palace take on Liverpool. Taking over after Jürgen Klopp may seem a daunting proposition, but so far Arne Slot has – mostly – made it look easy.

This week Slot became the first ever Liverpool manager to win eight out of his first nine games in charge in all competitions, which is a little bit of an odd stat but it is a stat all the same. One of the highest compliments we can pay Mr Slot at this time is that Liverpool has not really been a talking point so far this season, things have simply been ticking along very nicely. He inherited the third best squad in the league, and with a fairly kind fixture list to start the season, Slot seems to be putting it to good use.

Crystal Place on the other hand, have had a rough start to the season.

Europa League-winning manager Oliver Glasner worked wonders with the Eagles after he took over in the spring, but Palace currently looks like a shadow of that side. The loss of Michael Olise means Ebere Eze is the team’s only elite creative outlet – and opponents know it.

Eddie Nketiah has yet to find a place in the team that fully makes sense to him, and the midfield looks a little threadbare. Their performance against a struggling Everton last weekend was unimpressive, to say the least. With the team winless in their first six games, some Palace fans are understandably getting a little anxious.

I don’t think Palace are terrible and I don’t think they’ll stay in the bottom three for long, but Liverpool is not a fun team to face when things are going badly. With the exception of their unexpected and inexplicable defeat to Nottingham Forest, Liverpool have been getting the job done so far under their new manager, and against a misfiring Crystal Palace team I think Liverpool will get the job done again here. I’m taking a straight Liverpool win for the first pick on our weekly boosted treble.



West Ham – Ipswich

After our visit to Croydon we are heading to East London and the London Stadium, where West Ham take on Ipswich. The tractor boys – yes that is an actual nickname – were impressive against Aston Villa last week. The observant reader will remember that I had little faith in their ability to trouble Unai Emery’s men, but I was very wrong indeed on that score. The 2-2 draw was nothing less than Ipswich deserved, and with a bit of luck they could well have tilted the game in their favour. Ipswich have yet to win a game this season, but they’ve also only lost two out of their first six. The thing that’s got my attention is that they’ve scored in four out of those six games – and one of the remaining two was away to Liverpool. They may not have the quality to stay up, but Ipswich have a combative, fully committed team, and young Liam Delap is looking really rather useful up front.

West Ham recovered from an early setback to secure a 1-1 draw against Brentford last weekend, and having out-shot Brentford 19 to 8 away from home they will probably feel like they deserved even more from that game. One win out of their first six is quite a bit less than what West Ham will have been expecting from their head coach Julen Lopetegui, but the team made quite a lot of changes of the summer and perhaps they just need some more time for the players to figure each other out. That said, reports of tension between Lopetegui and the exciting creator Mohammed Kudus is another worrying sign for West Ham.

Personally I still think Ipswich are going to have a hard time staying up this season, but no one can accuse them of not giving it a go. In Jack Clarke, Omari Hutchinson and Liam Delap they have a trio of young attacking players who all have a point to prove, after failing to make the grade at Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester City, respectively.

Ipswich’s performances suggest they won’t be going down without a fight, so I think they can go to the London Stadium and at least make things awkward for West Ham. The hosts are favourites, with the home win priced at 1.82 by Betsson. I’ve been disappointed by West Ham so far and I am not completely sold on that price, instead I want to pick up “both teams to score” for our weekly treble. Ipswich have been doing alright in terms of scoring goals so far, while West Ham have conceded in five out of six games played so far. Being the home side, you would expect West Ham to score at least one, which leads me to thinking “both teams to score” is worth picking up for our weekly boosted treble here.



Aston Villa – Manchester United

Lastly on our boosted treble we are heading to Villa Park, because I just cannot resist an opportunity to oppose this Manchester United team. It should be said that Aston Villa let us down, badly, last weekend against Ipswich – but they did follow that up by beating Bayern Munich in the CL. It’s possible that the prospect of facing Bayern in a couple of days caused the Villa players to take their eyes off the ball a little bit against Ipswich, though you’d think that Manchester United coming to town is still enough to focus the minds.

Manchester United, for all their prestige and money, continue to be a deeply unimpressive football team. Underperforming manager Erik ten Hag was granted a reprieve this summer when the club’s new sporting administration decided not to fire him, but so far that does not look like a particularly inspired decision. After showing some sort of promise against Crystal Palace two weeks ago the team was a total mess last weekend against Tottenham, and they weren’t much better in the EL draw against Porto this midweek. United have tactical issues that we’ve discussed ad nauseum on this blog, but the team now also looks short on confidence and belief in what they’re doing.

It seems like sometimes the name, the prestige and the mystique of Manchester United can get in the way of our view of what the team actually is, right this moment. Putting all of that aside for a second, Manchester United are a team that finished eight in the league last season – and they had the 15th best Expected Goals difference.

After six games of this new season, they are 13th in the table, 10th on their xG difference. We may have been conditioned to think of Manchester United as an elite football team, but it’s been a while since the players on the pitch lived up to that tag – aside from their shock win in the FA Cup final.

Aston Villa have not been flawless so far this season, indeed their performance against Ipswich last weekend was bordering on outright bad. But they are a team that has a clear structure, players who know what is expected of them and who understand what they’re supposed to do on the pitch. These are things we haven’t been able to say about Manchester United in quite some time. With Betsson offering a price of 2.18 on Aston Villa beating United this Sunday, I think that’s a price that’s worth snapping up. I’m more than happy to make it the third and last pick on our weekly treble.

Normally this treble would get you a price of 5.43, but Betsson have increased the odds to 6.50!


Selected singles


Leicester – Bournemouth

First up with our selected singles we are heading to the King Power Stadium. With six matchdays under our belts we have just about a big enough sample size that I think it makes sense to start taking a look at some xG-numbers, and those numbers do not make for pleasant reading for Leicester City fans. So far this season Leicester have drawn three and lost three games, but the underlying numbers are pretty worrying.

So far this season, according to the statistics website FBref – who get their numbers from Opta – no team has created a lower xG number in the league this season going forward, and no team has conceded a higher xG number at the back. This is not a great combination. It means, in short, that Leicester City are both the worst attack and worst defence in the league. Six games is still a smallish sample size so some caution is advised, but at the very least this is a bad sign for Leicester City’s chances of getting results in this league with any kind of consistency.

Bournemouth, on the other hand, are showing up as 8th in the league on the Expected Goals difference, which is not entirely surprising. True, their two wins in their first six games have come against fairly weak opposition in Everton and Southampton, but they also put in feisty performances against Newcastle and Chelsea. Dominik Solanke replacement Evanilson scored an excellent goal against Southampton on Monday night, and with the lively wingers Dango Ouattra and Antoine Semenyo either side of Evanilson it certainly looks as if Bournemouth have a pretty lively attacking trio here. Leicester City turned some heads when they brought Arsenal’s two goals lead back to a 2-2 last weekend, but the final 4-2-scoreline should take away from the fact that Leicester were thoroughly outplayed. Arsenal ended up taking 35 shots to Leicester City’s five in this game, and really it was a minor miracle that Leicester got two actual goals out of the meagre stuff they managed to produce going forward in this game.

On paper, Bournemouth look like a decent midtable team, and that’s what both their results and their underlying numbers suggest that they are so far this season. Leicester, on the other hand, have managed to grind out some results but the underlying numbers are worrying. As far as I can tell, one of these teams are quite a bit better than the other. Betsson are offering a price of 2.22 on a straight Bournemouth win here, and I think that’s worth picking up. Bournemouth saw off newly promoted Southampton on Monday, and I’m happy to back them to see off another newly promoted team in Leicester City this Saturday.



Aston Villa – Manchester United

Next up, well, I can keep it brief because I said all I really have to say in the treble analysis. Betsson are offering a price of 2.18 on Aston Villa to win this game, and I am happy to oppose this Manchester United side at that price. I’m taking a straight Aston Villa win this weekend.


Brighton – Tottenham

Lastly, I want to take a bit more of a long shot in the game between Brighton and Tottenham. Brighton had a terrible time against Chelsea last weekend, with their high line being exposed time and time again.

Four goal Cole Palmer explained after the game that the Chelsea players have been told to play the ball quickly in behind the Brighton defence, and the simplicity and effectiveness of this plan should be somewhat embarrassing to the seagulls. The absence of Jean Paul van Hecke seems a problem to Brighton, as his replacement Adam Webster looked slow and rusty last weekend against Chelsea. Playing a high line is all well and good, but playing a high line with Lewis Dunk and Adam Webster at the back is probably a little bit risky.

Tottenham were really rather excellent against Manchester United last weekend, and after an uneven start to the season they delivered a timely reminder of just how fun the football of their head coach Ange Postecoglou is when it comes off. Brighton are probably not quite as inept as Manchester United right now, but two things should worry the seagulls here: Tottenham are really quite good at counter-attacking, and they have some very good passers in midfield. If the Chelsea players can play early balls in behind Brighton’s high line, there isn’t much reason to think the likes of James Maddison and Dejan Kulusevski won’t be able to do it here. Dominik Solanke starting to find his place in the team up front is good news for Spurs as well.

The odds-compilers and the markets are all expecting a ton of goals here, so the price on “over 2.5 goals” is actually as low as 1.37.

There’s a good reason for that, with both these teams definitely better going forward than they are at the back. Brighton have a number of players who excel at running with the ball, and against a notoriously open and attacking Tottenham team they should have ample opportunity to do so. I expect this will be a lively and entertaining game.

In terms of our betting angle, well, I think Spurs – fresh from a morale-boosting win at Old Trafford – can do this. Some of that is based on the fact that Brighton have a few inconvenient injuries here, with Jean Paul van Hecke and James Milner being out – and Joao Pedro, Joel Veltman and Simon Adingra being uncertain. I think Spurs have the speed and the quality to punish Brighton’s high defensive line, and one of the big differences between the teams is that Spurs have the freakish pace of Micky van de Ven to get them out of trouble at the back – whereas Brighton very much do not have that. That said, I have very little confidence in Tottenham’s ability to keep a clean sheet away from home here, so that all leads me to think that we should take a bit of a long shot here: Tottenham to win + both teams to score.

Spurs always seem to concede a few big chances in every single game, and I think Brighton will at some point punish them. But if Spurs play anything like they did away to Manchester United last weekend they will put several goals past Brighton here. For me, Tottenham to win + both teams to score at a price of 3.27 is worth a punt this weekend.

Good luck!

PS: Please note that the odds might have changed after writing and publication.

Last Updated: 04.10.24



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